Tuur Demeester has a self-described “out of the box” approach to macroeconomic analysis, and it’s one that has made his insight into Bitcoin’s unprecedented potential sought after by institutions (in 2021, Demeester’s bitcoin alpha fund Adamant Capital was sold to Blockstream, where he is now an advisor) as well as individuals (Demeester’s is ranked as the third “best Bitcoin Twitter account to follow” by social media analyst Hive.One).
Combining deep research into historical patterns, an academically-rigorous approach and a willingness to embrace new innovation, Demeester’s outlook on how Bitcoin fits into our wider world has been remarkable for its consistency and prescience for more than a decade.
He first recommended BTC as an investment to readers of his newsletter in 2012, when it was priced at $5. In 2013 (with bitcoin priced around $100), he told Bitcoin Magazine:
“I think bitcoin and the cryptocurrencies are the greatest investment opportunity of our day and age. First of all because bitcoin has all the qualities to make for an ideal money, to a greater extent than any digital or tangible commodity on the planet. Second, in contrast with traditional fiat money, bitcoin is designed for the internet; it’s open source, it’s mobile, fast, and it allows for personal privacy. Third, because we are approaching a bankruptcy event in the developed economies, both in banks and governments, I think that bitcoin, as a discrete and nonconfiscatable currency, will benefit greatly from the capital flight that will ensue.”
As more people around the world have realized Demeester is right about this nascent digital currency, his own perspective has continued to grow. In the introductory note to Adamant’s landmark research paper from 2019, “The Bitcoin Reformation,” Demeester made the case that bitcoin was not merely a new kind of money, but represented a fundamental shift with few precedents in history.
“In the past I’ve drawn parallels between bitcoin and the early petroleum industry, the search engine wars, the domain name markets, the growth of P2P file sharing, and internet protocols,” he explained. “But I kept feeling that I was failing to fundamentally grasp the magnitude of the epoch in which bitcoin functions as a catalyst. It wasn’t until I studied the era around the Protestant Reformation that I felt I’d found a potential blueprint of sufficient scope.”
Demeester continues to develop one of the most sought-after perspectives in Bitcoin and now he’s preparing to share that perspective at the upcoming Bitcoin 2023 event in Miami.
“I have a new report, ‘How To Position For The Bitcoin Boom,’ which I’m happy to talk about in Miami,” he told Bitcoin Magazine in an interview about the event. “I can’t say much as to the content right now, but rest assured it will be bullish on bitcoin. In general, my aim is always to inspire people to think for themselves by providing good source information and perspectives that they hadn’t considered before.”
Of course, today’s global, macroeconomic climate is one that will produce a lot of compelling Bitcoin content at the largest annual event dedicated to showcasing it. And this year is one that is bringing some of Demeester’s earliest insights about Bitcoin to fruition.
“It’s hard to predict the very short term, but my view for 2023 is that quantitative easing will make a comeback, and hence that we’ll see a surge of new inflation, in particular in rising commodity prices,” he said. “That is enormously bullish for bitcoin, because it’s one of the few true inflation hedges out there.”
The event will also be a chance to reflect on the progress Bitcoin is making as a technology, independent of BTC’s value relative to fiat currency or the erosion of the legacy financial system. With an outlook that has experienced numerous bear and bull cycles, Demeester is optimistic about how the current environment will produce more advanced and resilient Bitcoin projects.
“In bear markets, developers, entrepreneurs, politicians and other Bitcoin actors tend to take their time working on projects because they know that announcements — no matter how impressive — will generally see very little interest,” Demeester said. “I expect a huge amount of exciting announcements to come out in 2023, even though I can’t yet predict where exactly they will come from. I’m expecting serious progress in nation-state adoption, in Lightning technology, in bitcoin mining and in the use of bitcoin as a financial performance benchmark, and in bitcoin-backed mortgages.”
Finally, Demeester — a veteran of Bitcoin events, big and small, in bear markets and bull markets — is looking forward to checking in with the Bitcoin 2023 attendees who he’s known throughout his long and expansive career in the space, as well as meeting the new ones who will help take that journey into the future.
“I look forward to catching up with friends, some of whom I haven’t met in a long time, and also of course to meet new people,” Demeester concluded. “Bitcoin conferences like Bitcoin 2023 are so fun because they gather Bitcoin people from all around the world together in one place.”